… We’re in for a period of applying intelligence, indulging curiosity, playing around with different perspectives and taking part in extraordinary discussions that could only happen at this historic moment.
Steve Carell, 57; Steve Martin, 74; Steve Wozniak, 69: “Creativity can only be accessed in the present. To obsess about the future or ruminate about the past isn’t creative. Those behaviors can be useful, but a very small dose goes a long way.” Leo
Hi and welcome to Sunday’s Episode 52 in Season 2 of “My Pandemic Year Experiment” on this 24th day of May in the spring of 2020.
“The Tau of Steves: What You Don’t Know Could Fill a Book”
Season One and Two are a two-year examination of how bits of wisdom changed during the “normal” pre-pandemic and then in this unfolding pandemic year.
Previously in Season Two, the Pandemic Year
S2 E51 — Let’s Agree to Make Things Worse, Shall We?; S2 E50 — 5 Fundamental Uncertainties; S2 E49 — Navigating Waves of Disruption When You’ve Lost Your Bearings
Related from Season One, the Normal Year
S1 E52 — Missing Chapters and Paths Not Taken; S1 E51 — Brief, Broad, Fast, Wow and Delight; S1 E50 —The Bias Brothers or Just Plain Losers?; S1 E49 — Magnetize the Version You Imagine
Can you predict the future? Hell, no! Does that stop anyone from trying, well not everyone, right? In very uncertain times like these what we need I believe is scenario thinking instead. With it we can creatively prepare for and clarify potential risks when we choose a path forward.
And, that my friends is why I’m continuing my series drawing upon the report from Deloitte and Salesforce’s “The world remade by COVID-19 Scenarios for resilient leaders | 3-5 years.”
Why am I a big fan of scenarios — other than they are just so much fun to flesh out?
“Scenarios are stories about what the future may be like, created through a structured process to stretch thinking, challenge conventional wisdom, and drive better decisions today. They are not predictions about what will happen. They are hypotheses about what could happen, designed to open our eyes to new opportunities or hidden risks.”
Here’s what they and we are after — trying to get our heads around what kinds of changes can we expect as we invest our livelihoods and embrace our social isolation sacrifices through a novel global uncertainty.
The good folks at Deloitte and Salesforce encourage us to challenge our assumptions.
… imagine how the things you were sure would happen could now be on a different course. Avoid the temptation to conclude that the crisis will accelerate the changes you already expected or believed were inevitable.
Here’s an 8-step process of strategic exploration I normally follow. We’re now on step 4.
- State the specific decision to be made —to answer the question we’ve all been asking ourselves, what will have changed as a result of what’s happening to us right now.
- Identify the major environmental forces impacting the decision —the team identified 19 uncertainties and 5 critical uncertainties with two dimensions along which 2 critical uncertainties will drive the overall impact.
- Develop four plausible and qualitatively different possibilities for each force — 1. The Passing Storm, 2. Good Company, 3. Sunrise in the East and 4. Lone Wolves.
- Assemble the alternatives for each force into internally consistent stories
Here’s how Deloitte and Salesforce summarized 5 critical forces playing out in each of 4 scenarios to assemble those forces into internally consistent stories.
- Social cohesion rises with a heightened appreciation for interpersonal and familial relationships (Passing Storm); is maintained as society shifts to become more “purpose-driven” (Good Company); shifts to an increased emphasis on the “good of the whole” (Sunrise in the East); and falls, as xenophobia and suspicion of others become the norm (Lone Wolves).
- Technology advances stay on course as previous holdouts move online (Passing Storm); take center stage with large companies driving solutions in areas such as health tech and biotech (Good Company); are accelerated as more data-sharing allows for advances in AI and other advanced tech capabilities (Sunrise in the East); and are divergent among different markets, with a focus on advances in surveillance and control measures (Lone Wolves)
- Worldwide economies enter an extended recession with increased income inequality (Passing Storm); are disrupted with a growing concentration of power among large companies (Good Company); shrink due to the prolonged nature of the virus (Sunrise in the East); and are left in turmoil as global supply chains are disrupted (Lone Wolves)
- Focus on climate change is renewed as global collaboration provides hope for progress (Passing Storm); is mixed with some sustainability-minded companies investing in renewable energy (Good Company); is deemphasized as economic recovery is prioritized (Sunrise in the East); and declines as countries shift toward energy independence (Lone Wolves)
- Governments around the world gain trust and international organizations such as WHO grow in relevance (Passing Storm); partner with large corporations, who step up as part of the solution (Good Company); look to the east for guidance, as Asian countries effectively manage the virus (Sunrise in the East); and adopt isolationism as they attempt to contain the virus within (Lone Wolves)
“4” Steve Zahn, 51: “Because you have big plans, you can’t afford to wait for inspiration. You’ll simply show up and work whether you feel motivated or not. Inspiration will kick in eventually.” Scorpio
So I feel this almost every day. Waiting for inspiration only means staring at a blank screen for far too long. Two activities usually work for me. The first I start the morning with, even before the first cup — scrolling through all the Apple News feeds I search to curate the days stories @Knowlabs.
Something triggers an inspiration or a loose (at 5:30 am) connection for one of my passion projects. The other is this habit on Thursdays through Fridays of curating TauBits of Wisdom because it stretches me to twist it somehow into what I want to say.
Random ones that make me want change my sign.
Today’s Holiday Birthday:
“A lucrative wave of business occurs as your interests meld with the common interest and you provide a valuable service. Years of experience suddenly add up to well-deserved mastery. Smooth will be the road of relationships and smoother still will be your approach to getting into and out of them as the case may be.”
I can only wish for two reasons. I’m not seeing it and because this ain’t my birthday. If it’s your’s Happy Birthday and enjoy your well-deserved mastery and smooth relationships.
“5” Steve Carell, 57; Steve Martin, 74; Steve Wozniak, 69: “Creativity can only be accessed in the present. To obsess about the future or ruminate about the past isn’t creative. Those behaviors can be useful, but a very small dose goes a long way.” Leo
Amen brother Steves. Rumination and obsession lead to a road of ruin — or at least blocked creativity. Switch gears and close your favorite screen.
“3” Steve Kerr, 54: “No one is entirely to blame for the situation they are in, but everyone is entirely responsible for their own situation. You’ll get the help you need and give the help that is needed in the name of improvement.” Libra
I almost passed on selecting Steve’s, until I realized we individually didn’t start the fire of COVID-19 burning out of control, but we can get vaccinated when it’s an option and we can wear our masks.
“4” Steve Harvey, 62: “You’ll have an excellent sense of where to focus, and it only gets better as the day progresses. At the end of the day, you’ll feel like you spent your energy on all the right things.” Capricorn
I know it’s really tough to know where to focus right now. I only hope presenting this Deloitte and Salesforce report will make things a little easier and that makes me feel I’ve spent today’s energy on the right things, then.
“5” Steve Nash, 45: “You will become aware of something you have been, until now, only unconsciously aware of. This is big. “Ah-ha” moments don’t come with fireworks. Nonetheless, they change everything.” Aquarius
When I’m not, my other trick is to ask, “What would Leo da V do?” to give me permission to procrastinate like a Renaissance Master and free associate like a dog on a walk who abruptly takes off with the first sniff of squirrel no matter what the destination was supposed to be.
The Holiday Forecast for the Week Ahead:
“… suggests we (shouldn’t) be quick to land on conclusions, definitions or labels. It’s not the moment to listen to uneducated opinions or even educated ones. Messes could very well become successes and vice versa, and it’s too soon to tell how the chips will fall. Time will tell, and anyone who tries to preempt time’s decree will later have to content with their own bad taste while eating their words. … we’re in for a period of applying intelligence, indulging curiosity, playing around with different perspectives and taking part in extraordinary discussions that could only happen at this historic moment. Set out to have fun, or better yet to be the fun. Above all, don’t take yourself too seriously, as that would only ruin the magic. The lighter a heart is, the higher it can fly.”
What’s Going On …
Literally Bottled and Set Adrift from KnowWhere Atoll
- @knowlabs followers of one or more of my 35 digital magazines grew from 2663 to 2839.
- Saw the movie, didn’t realize that one of my favorite authors, Michael Connelly — his detective Hieronymus (Harry) Bosch book series and Amazon Prime series — also wrote, “The Lincoln Lawyer” which I just finished. Gotta tell you I can’t not see his lead character (Mickey Haller, Bosch’s half brother) as anyone else but Matthew McConaughey.
Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons
Inspired by: Holiday Mathis – Creators Syndicate
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